I as a layman I am caught up in the debate many a times। I’ve read a number of articles by different authorities in various publications and seen various interviews on TV channels. In most part the whole thing is being blamed on the US, or at least the start is always attributed to USA, and spreading to the whole world, engulfing it in its flames.
Sometime in the early part of the beginning – I was with a professional friend, 20 years my junior and one who had spent 12 years working in the US as a Technology expert। Obviously apart from other things – we started discussing the economic conditions and here also the discussion revolved about the US and US credit policies, Real state, Consumerism, Life-style, rampant use/misuse of credit cards and all such things.
Based on the discussions and readings, I was tempted to write my views and share with the world what I feel about it as a Lay man, but somehow was not able to do so। Last Sunday on the 18 of January 2009, I was reading our regular news paper Rajasthan Patrika and in the Sunday column there was a reproduction of a Lecture by Mr. S Gurumoorthy, a prominent Journalist, Economist and a very reputed professional. After reading the article I could not hold back and am here trying to share my views and seek answers I’m unable to find. My comments have borrowed heavily from the above cited article, and in no way I want to criticize, contradict or comment on the renowned Mr Gurumoorthy. I’m too novice for that and being a layman – I don’t stand anywhere near compared to him. I have used some of the points only because, more or less all discussions and my readings revolve around similar points. Even my discussions with my friend referred above have the same content.
Everyone has blamed the USA, its consumerism, consumption, debt, economic policies, and credit cards as responsible for the crisis। My friend and Mr Gurumoorthy agree on the point of average 10/12 credit card ownership per family. To a great extent they attribute the downfall to this. They also point to a whooping loan taken by the US. Heavy advances by most of the countries exporting to the US. They have tried to analyse the whole scenario and find/suggest answers – but I could not find the answers or reasons. May be I’m not able to understand the same. In the article – at one place he writes that we in India are better placed because of our cultural and social upbringing and this in turn has given us saving habits. This is upheld as a big virtue and a strong reason for our safety in these times. There are so many different references to interest rates, stock markets, mall culture, spending habits of the western world. Also there is a positive reference to the Indian Family system and culture. Most of it I’m unable to understand. He has also pointed to the American social security system and concludes this as a type of Nationalisation of the Family structure.
Whether it is US or anywhere else in the world – if one gets a credit card – he cannot go on getting credits endlessly। If a counrty imports goods on credit it has to pay back. It cannot endlessly get credit. The way I understand the trade, mostly it is between private players. A manufacturer/Supplier in Japan/China/India exports to US/EUROPE – on some fixed payment terms. In most cases the payments are advance by LCs, even if there are credits – they are normally short term. The traders are not in default for long periods of time. The citizens of any country using multiple credit cards cannot be in default for long times. On an average a US citizen earns better than an average Asian or Indian. He may not save but cannot spend much beyond his limits. In all countries of the world, governments run on Taxes and as far as I understand – the tax collection machinery is the most ruthless everywhere. No government leave the tax defaulter at ease for long. India is a different story. If the government is collecting the taxes – and the population after paying the tax is left with little to survive/indulge in and still live on credit, to me it sounds – state sponsored debt. The government is rich and the citizens’ debt ridden. Living under a constant debt burden. In a way it looks like the Government and a few people favoured by the government are rich and are becoming richer by the day. Nowhere have I read the US government has become bankrupt. Nowhere in all the material I have read so far is there news of a Bailout package for the State. This again compels me to wonder if everything is state sponsored? Since my exposure to their system is limited, I cannot discuss much on them but just a few points which as a layman come to mind – point a finger to state sponsorship for all that is happening.
Coming to India – the virtues pointed out in the article don’t seem to be holding ground in the present system। The only difference I see here is the system – if we can say we have a system. Else it is the non existence of the system that probably is saving us. In India I know what it is to get a credit card. If you have a strong balance sheet – there are tens of lending agencies to extend a card. If you are financially weak – I hope everyone knows what it to own a credit card. In case of defaults also the ways of recovery are well known. My experience shows – it is mostly the powerful/mighty/prosperous who default the most as they know they can fight/evade/manipulate the recovery agents/system. The middle class and poor mostly pay-up or don’t default in the first place. I personally know of a no of instances where huge outstanding bills of Industrial Houses are converted in Loans in case of habitual defaults. To a common man – one unpaid bill and the departmental people are there to disconnect/disrupt services. After defaulting once – and going through the reconnection process – few have the nerve to default again.
The family system is also falling apart – the prosperity of the past decade is not based on the virtues of the traditional system but newer generation which have scant respect to the old values। What we see mostly is the result of IT/ITES boom and the American way of life. I personally know many young Indians earning more than their parents and still unable to meet their personal expenses. The highest family discord/mal-adjustment is in the young and educated/modern generation. The growing greed, materialism, disregard towards elders, life style do not speak too well for these virtues. Still we are better placed compared to the western world is beyond explanation. Probably we are in transition and hence neither traditional nor western. Yes I agree totally with Mr Gurumoorthy about the strength of the traditional Indian Family system rooted in virtues. Also I firmly believe and advocate the opinion that we will never be “westernised” in the way they are, our cultural and social systems and upbringing will always withhold us. Despite seeing it fail – we are following them, but not for long. In the final analysis we will have to invent our own system and we will.
We may be happy about the bank deposits – but it is not the savings of the common man। The common man is hardly able to meet his minimal requirements of Food and Shelter, leave aside health, he cannot afford to be health conscious. He only takes care of Emergency Health management and that also by insufficient methods and means. The abundant presence of quacks and untrained practitioners is proof enough. Education is a luxury for the blessed few. Where is he going to find funds for savings? This saving is also coming from the parallel economy to a large extent. As the government control on banks is increasing we will see less in the bank savings accounts and FDRs. Real estate is another alternative option of investment of the funds from the parallel economy and we already have seen the rise in investment in this sector.
We are better placed compared to the west because we have less state control or no control to be more true। Our state does not have control on the tax collection, the n numbers of tax evaders are proof enough. The existence of parallel economy is a known and accepted fact. We do not have a working bureaucracy or a political system. The major part of the working hours of our policy makers are spent in saving the seat. The politician is under constant pressure of retaining his seat – so the most part of his time is spent in protecting it, managing alliances, planning for re-election for the next term. Making the most out of the present position and insuring the future of his whole generation – as he is not sure of getting a second chance. To get a second one has to work, perform, but alas he does not have time or capability for one thing that is work, perform. A bureaucrat also has a similar agenda, though not in fear of losing the job, but he also has to safeguard the seat of profitable assignment. The one on a lucrative posting lives under constant pressure of losing it and the one without, under constant pressure of making efforts to get there. In all this seat management where do we see the time to make policies and manage the affairs he is entrusted. In all this seat-management mayhem – governance and duties are casualty.
Probably India is the only country in the world where we reward the defaulter। We pay the bills of the pilferers. Electricity is a very good example. It is a well established fact that we have one of the highest electricity pilferages. And what is the ground reality? The establishment reports loss and increases the rates – to be paid by the conscientious honest user. It is the same everywhere – the honest user of services pays for the dishonest. Again a typical case of systemic failure.
In a way we can say – we are better placed because we do not have any state control। We do not have STATE at all. We just have a symbolic state. AND that is probably A Boon In Disguise. Neither virtues, nor systems but the absence of STATE is helping us survive, if we can have a semblance of satisfaction that we are as surviving.
A counter point – Despite the gloomy economic scenario – the huge success of the Vibrant Gujarat Investor summit। A well managed show of State - commitment.
If we really want to find solutions – we have to look at the STATE and the ways of the STATE – initiate changes from the top. The person who care and understand what little is in their capacity have taken a resigned view, we have to bring them to the front ranks. The overwhelming affinity of materialism have pushed the thinkers and knowledgeable to the sidelines. We have to restore honour and respect for them to get them out of the perpetual hibernation they have chosen for themselves. Just today I was reading an article about the Fall of Mr Raju of Satyam and some where he had quoted – “Ordinary people have the capacity to deliver the Extra Ordinary”. Yes that is very true. We have to get out of the Jargons and look for simple terms and ages old systems which helped us to whether all storms. We have to balance the STATE and PEOPLE.